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Looking to hitch a ride on the growth of Chinese consumer spending? Wine is one unlikely area that could prove rewarding.
The popular Western tipple remains marginal when it comes to Chinese drinking habits. Wine has accounted for 4.7% of alcoholic retail sales so far in 2009, according to Access Asia, down from 5.4% in 2008. Part of the decline was due to the economic slowdown, particularly evident in China's richer, eastern cities, where wine consumption has traditionally been strongest.
But wine may still be a good investment. Beverage consumption is rising rapidly among the Chinese, with the alcohol market expanding 22% in 2009 versus last year. That makes wine attractive even if it just keeps pace with other drinks. But, if the economic recovery continues, wine is likely to become more popular, particularly among the growing urban middle class.
Who stands to gain most from this trend? French wine exporters are already rubbing their hands at the rapid growth of a new market. The popularity of red Bordeaux wine in particular led to a near fifteen fold increase in wine imports to China from France between 2002 and 2008 ; China is now the eighth largest importer of Bordeaux globally. In the last couple of years, Chinese investors have even started buying wine assets in France; Chateau Richelieu and Chateau Latour-Leguens are both now in Chinese hands.
But there are local Chinese players that have managed to take advantage and increase their market share in the last few years, even as foreign wine imports have gained traction. In particular: Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine, the leading listed Chinese wine maker. Its share of the overall Chinese wine market by revenues had grown to 12.5% by the end of 2008, up from 11.3% in 2005.
Holding, or even growing, its share in an expanding market should assure Changyu of a strong future. Morgan Stanley analysts include the stock as one of a basket of Chinese companies it expects to benefit from the growth of Chinese household spending.
Also, notwithstanding this year's temporary return to cheaper drinks, Chinese consumers seem increasingly prepared to pay more for their wine. In 2003, 96% of wine sold was priced below $5 per bottle; this year, 23% of wine sales have been in the $5 to $10 per bottle range. During that time, retail prices for liquor have risen by 3.5%. Meanwhile, Changyu's net profit margins have risen steadily, up to 25.9% in 2008 from 17.3% in 2005.
Trading at 25.8 times forward earnings, Yantai Changyu already has a lot of good news priced in. But the stock is still cheaper than other that of other alcoholic-drinks companies making more-traditional Chinese drinks. Kweichow Moutai, which makes the popular baijiu drink, is currently priced at 32.5 times forward earnings.
For investors wanting exposure to the Chinese consumer, betting that a segment of drinkers westernize their tastes as they become more affluent makes sense.
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